By Connect Stories Africa Reporter
The global fight against HIV/AIDS could suffer a severe setback if U.S. funding cuts to key prevention and treatment programs become permanent, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has warned.
New estimates from UNAIDS project 6.3 million AIDS-related deaths and 8.7 million new HIV infections between 2025 and 2029 if the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) remains inactive. The program, which has been instrumental in providing HIV treatment and prevention services in 54 countries, has faced funding suspensions, leading to closures of vital health programs.
The Human Toll of a Funding Freeze
During a virtual briefing, Mary Mahy, Director of Data for Impact at UNAIDS, explained how the projections were made.
“We estimate 6.3 million additional AIDS-related deaths between 2025 and 2029 across all PEPFAR-supported countries. This figure reflects the number of people who may lose access to life-saving treatment,” Mahy said.
The estimates are based on a mathematical model using data from PEPFAR-supported countries. The analysis considered how many people receive treatment through U.S.-funded programs and the potential rise in mortality if services are discontinued.
“For example, if 50 out of 100 people receiving treatment depend on PEPFAR-supported programs, we apply an additional mortality rate to those individuals to estimate the increased number of deaths,” Mahy explained.
A Surge in New HIV Infections
Beyond the deaths, UNAIDS warns of a dramatic increase in new HIV infections, with an estimated 8.7 million additional cases expected between 2025 and 2029.
“In 2023, we recorded 1.3 million new HIV infections globally. Without prevention services, an additional 8.7 million could occur over the next four years, worsening the epidemic,” Mahy stated.
The projections are based on data from PEPFAR and UNAIDS’ Spectrum model, which tracks how prevention services impact infection rates.
What’s Driving the Increase?
UNAIDS identified five major factors contributing to the projected surge in new HIV cases:
1. Lack of treatment access – Without medication, people with HIV will have higher viral loads, increasing the risk of transmission.
2. Mother-to-child transmission – The absence of prevention programs will lead to more infants being born with HIV.
3. Disruption of PrEP services – Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), which significantly reduces HIV risk, will no longer be widely available.
4. Halted voluntary medical male circumcision – This procedure, known to lower HIV transmission rates, will be less accessible.
5. Reduced outreach to key populations – Vulnerable groups will struggle to access prevention and treatment services.
UNAIDS emphasized that it will continue working with countries to monitor the situation and update projections as the crisis unfolds. The organization urged governments and donors to act swiftly to prevent a major setback in the global fight against HIV/AIDS.